Chinese banking stocks have investment value

Since this week, the Shanghai composite index fell gradually from 2800 points above, sparked concerns about whether the rebound over. Hong Kong investment critics CaoRenChao thinks that future stock index up the space is not large; The bull market two period should pick stocks don't see city; Chinese banking stocks have investment value, but because foreign look weak, so short-term ascendant space is limited, dramatic rise should be starting from next year. Monetary policy fastest four quarter relax China stock certificate report: since July, A shares have been pestering near 2800,New Era Hats 2610 points since the market, is super fell to rebound, or you have said before attack on three quarters of market official start? CaoRenChao: on the analysis above all certainly before the stock market is in what level. November 2008 and August is a bull market), and then into the long bull market phase ii, general but for as long as two or three years. The bull market phase ii index lift range is not too much, such as the Shanghai composite index points to 3100 points in 2600 between fluctuation, every time drop back to near 2600 are absorbing opportunity. The bull market two period should pick stocks don't see city. Hong Kong over the past year the industrials heavy falls, increase consumer stock larger, believe A shares. China's stock certificate report: investment community generally expected inflation in the second half the mainland the situation will improve, monetary policy will not be tightened up, why index hesitate? CaoRenChao: mainland China in July CPI peaked a great chance, because in addition to the prices of food, the rest of the price of product of July has begun to recede. The central bank has already raised interest rates because announced, the second half of the most and a interest rate hikes and two raise deposit reserve rate possible. Monetary policy to the fastest will relax this year four seasons, so the second half A shares still can't get rid of the bull market phase ii, until the first half of next year. China's stock certificate report: mainland China's GDP growth has started to slow, enterprise profit seems not so optimistic, mean bull market than in the second phase of good imagination, supporting the bull market of the second phase of the main factors have? CaoRenChao: mainland China's GDP growth slowdown is good. In the world any country or region GDP over 30 years after high growth still not slow, China can't exception. Support the second phase of a bull market factor is monetary policy too loose and not too tight. Enterprise profit overall is still on the rise, mainly industrials dropped net profit, consumer stock, with property, bank shares net profit is still on the rise, but not increase in 2009. So there net profit growth slows, p/e ratio of the decline of the situation. Don't worry about Chinese bank shares China stock certificate report: a famous overseas investment Banks before hair report that, China local government debt defaults will risk, and see the air endowment bank shares. But recently, the message says, since the middle of June, jpmorgan chase and Morgan Stanley, the black stone spend more than hk $1 billion Chinese Banks to take class H shares. The local government will not appear large-scale debt default? Chinese Banks to the current investment value? CaoRenChao: only do not understand the truth of China will worry about Chinese bank analyst stocks. They think that the mainland property prices would be a drop of 50%, killed I don't believe the above situation will appear. Of course the mainland property prices by 10% to 15% of the may exist, the above declines will not cause of Chinese Banks appear non-performing crisis. Foreign analysts to Japan in 1990 to 2008 property prices fall or 1997 to 2003 Hong Kong property prices fall as the reference, and ignore the China is emerging market every year, and has a population of twenty million by rural into the cities, the mainland per capita income will rise from $4000 a year to $12000 a year in the future, so I don't agree with the mainland property prices will substantially of the theory. As for the local government debt, some places large-scale default not strange, but a lot of local government defaults unlikely. Because of the land have value, and the central government strong financial resources. Chinese banking stocks existing investment value, but because foreign look weak, short-term ascendant space is limited, I believe that the dramatic rise will be starting from next year, is at a chip collect period. China's stock certificate report: debt problems across continents, a recent American debt and European debt problem Europe and the stock market, and international commodity market has continued to be strong, does this indicate the the us could launch QE3, gold and precious metals prices will not continue to rise? CaoRenChao: debt problem is still troubling to Europe and America, this is China's GDP growth slows down one of the reasons for the export of only depending on the domestic demand. The United States issued QE3 unlikely, because the QE2 is not effective. Believe that gold is still in high cowhide but not increase,NFL hats for example in the $1400 to $1600 range fluctuate. China's stock certificate report: recently, Chinese concept in overseas frequently were hunted, see empty agitation from the United States to blow Canada and even Hong Kong, listed overseas, the main problems of the Chinese concept in where? The information is the concept a conspiracy, or the overseas capital market supervision system? CaoRenChao: because to the us, and the city to both the concept can listed in Hong Kong, and the level of orders, they affect current listing in Hong Kong to both the concept also hunted. After this round after cleaning instead is a good thing, representative to the four seasons most this year will see an end to both the concept can be bought.

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