China PTA industries woeful

China PTA industries woeful
China's purified terephthalic acid (PTA) industry in the 21st century, the rapid development of the domestic PTA production capacity and output also has a substantial increase in the next few years, there are a lot of devices in the future within a few years to come on stream. But in my opinion, the China PTA industry outlook is bleak. Driven by the downstream PET polyester industry, domestic PTA production capacity is expanding rapidly, the production of growth also in 2001, less than 2.2 million tons, and in 2005, this figure had reached about 550 million tons, with an average annual an increase of more than 25%. Nevertheless, domestic production is still unable to meet the strong demand, the supply gap has not only narrow, but widening imports nearly 6.5 million tons in 2005, but also makes the apparent consumption in 2004 exceeded 10 million tons following after close to 12 million tons. It is also the view of this, the domestic and foreign manufacturers optimistic about the market, ready to build the new device or expansion of old equipment. Indeed so? As the application of the bottle grade resin, PTA still in the preliminary stage, its main purpose is to make polyester fibers (polyester). Of textiles, reach more than 65% of the proportion of the chemical fiber textile, chemical fiber raw materials, 80% polyester. Textile quota system from January 1, 2005, is terminated. Because businesses have been optimistic about the elimination of quotas after China's chemical fiber industry, so a few years ago in which a large investment. In recent years, domestic PTA production and a substantial increase in production, especially in 2003 and 2004 broke out, it was their masterpiece. Fairview prospects expected, however, did not appear On the contrary, China's textiles are still not free to export, but encountered greater resistance. After arduous negotiations, was, respectively, with the European Union and the United States reached agreement to the gradual opening up of the market ,2005-2007 is a buffer period. This naturally have a considerable impact on the demand for PTA. If so there is no demand growth forecast, new expansion device is there any need for building, it will not appear oversupply situation? Maybe some people will argue that you can also look forward to after 2008, when not completely let go of it, so there is no need to be overly worried. This, of course,men s health, yes, but we can think about it, what is the extent of this possibility, and perhaps to also appear in the new negotiations, new negotiations, new protocols, new ... In addition, the price factor is also on the PTA industry disadvantage. PTA is paraxylene (PX) after oxidation refined, so the PX the cost price of PTA has its important influence. Price but take a look at both of the last two years, we can be surprised to find that the PX price is higher than the PTA recently widening to about 1500 yuan / ton (PX ex-factory price of 10,200 yuan / ton PTA in east China The transaction price 8700 yuan / ton), for PTA production enterprise what it means, I believe that without the author go into. Many domestic PTA manufacturers PetroChina and Sinopec's price But should not be ignored, there are many manufacturers rely on imports PX raw materials for production,tpp問題点, and whether they can stick it? From the current situation, the situation has changed in the short term is difficult to. Another easily overlooked factor is the appreciation of the yuan. RMB appreciation on the export competitiveness of the textile has a negative impact on the textile market situation, in turn, will have a direct impact on the development of chemical fiber industry and upstream PTA industry. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi means that dollar-denominated imports more attractive to the PX price, there may be an incentive to offer increased. In fact, in China, announced on July 21 last year, after adjusting the exchange rate, overseas traders to make quick reaction, tentatively raised its offer. Despite the appreciation of the RMB is slow, but almost no one would deny that this trend and its impact for many of the industry will also gradually emerging. China PTA industry seemingly scenery, the manufacturers investment is also very positive. But demand is really there will be a large-scale growth in doubt, the profitability of production nor uncertain Moreover, there is some uncertainty, in my opinion, the China PTA industry outlook is bleak. Some may think that this is alarmist, but at least is perilous.