2012年3月2日星期五

China's economic real "barometer"

8 month of the last day, to many people is black and white. But is on this day, shenzhen index finished in small and medium plate makes hit a new record of 6665.39 points. In the Shanghai composite index, is still in about 2600 points wandering, and less than half its history. It has great symbolic importance. The stock market is always habitually called "national economic barometer", but for many years the Chinese stock market has been let all people to understand. With the trend of the first half of the year to see, the recovery of the economy (although it is a slow and difficult) and the commodity price of buoyancy promoted global stock markets since the summer of 2008 Wall Street financial crisis since the strong rebound, and China is in the global economic recovery and growth most dramatic and strong. If,New Era Hats however, suffer from severe sovereign debt crisis from the Greek words, China's a-share index performance is all around the world in the stock market the worst,NFL hats even more than the same in the euro debt crisis of Ireland, Spain and Portugal have less! Look, the Chinese stock market is the a and the fundamentals of the economy completely irrelevant became invalid barometer. But I want to point out, this is from A shares on the mainboard market look at problems get conclusion. If have reached an all-time high of small and medium plate as a Chinese stock market the real protagonist (not usually be most people despise and supporting looked), then we will not pleasantly surprised to find that the stock market as a barometer of economic fact pattern in China is still there. Truly representative of China's economy is not the "in" ", but numerous small small and medium-sized enterprises. To be objective, acknowledged that China stock market not start off with a normal capital market--it is not to set up to provide society with a financial resource efficient allocation of platforms, but to raise private capital to state-owned enterprise a blood transfusion. Say a bit more directly, the guiding ideology of the financial market of China is the distribution of resources in distorting way (one of the core is strict examination and approval system) make social financial resources are flowing out of the invalid or low efficiency of the state-owned enterprise, especially administrative monopoly of the scholars from renmin type. Although the past 20 years financial regulators did a lot of system construction efforts, but from the most essential point of view, China's stock markets still just in the service of the state-owned economy, a financial tools just, it is not a real sense of "the market". And the people of the present in front the vast majority of the stock market, and the root cause is the starting point is. The so-called "policy city", I want to refer to be this meaning. Since this time last year almost since the gem actually officially, we found that the Chinese securities market is according to the enterprise ownership form three levels, or three independent market sector. Roughly speaking, Shanghai motherboard market, mainly is the central enterprise financing platform; Shenzhen of small and medium plate market, the more and more like a local state-owned enterprises and some large-scale private enterprise financing platform; The shenzhen gem, it will probably be a worthy of the name "private enterprise board". Although the establishment of the gem time too short, also do not have accurate observation value, but can be expected, with the passage of time, China's stock market in the future,NBA hats the active degree gem is much bigger than small and medium-sized board, and the latter is active degree and much higher than the mainboard. Possibly even appear such circumstance: gem stocks is 60 times to still demand exceeds supply, while the city is filled with lead only stock motherboard 20 times but unpopular. This is very much in line with the real condition of China's economy, the society within the scope of the wealth create sense, the efficiency of small and medium-sized private enterprises in local state-owned enterprises, and the latter and good in large scholars from renmin. Therefore, the small and medium plate index-but anomalies deviate from the real economy-with the half every breakthrough record, can actually be regarded as the market power of spontaneous administrative force trying to distort the market transaction did some kind of self correcting. As long as we intend to make a market economy, then the market this only "invisible hand" strength is must be hard to stop. The government may have ability of the administrative examination and approval by the way such as not let many high-quality private enterprise listed, but no way to force people to buy those inferior state-owned enterprise's stock.

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