This year is the money to the bank run, or money in the first half of next year to bank run hedge everybody hiding in between the bank can't go out; The first half of next year large estate trust expires on, still have 5000 small loans don't know how many entities in the set funds inside, huge government debt maturity, depression or big probability, bank behavior cautious and arisen; High grade debt yields has downside space; But there may be expanding credit spread the central bank will continue to drop the debt must take up with ease financial convergence is China's economic chain successful transformation of the logic starting point of despite information comes out,cheap new era hats next year's budget will develop a slightly less than this year's deficit scale (800 billion), but the key is to see execution. Such as the original budget deficit this year 900 billion, but the last execution down or will be 3000-400 billion fiscal surplus. The Treasury has held the national budget enforcement work video conference, deputy secretary of the finance department LiaoXiaoJun says that, in the costs of arrangement, two months after spending about 2.2 trillion yuan. That is, the last of this year will be formulated in accordance with the budget spending (10 trillion) executive down, not according to the budget deficit (900 billion) to execute. According to data just released, in November, the expenditure of national 1.14 trillion yuan, in December is expected to budgetary outlays in around 1.1 trillion. So, this year will achieve the 370 billion surplus, not the deficit. In general, the Chinese government fiscal expenditure rule, a years 40% of government spending concentrated in the last quarter, while 20% concentrated in the last month, this year the two ratio will be significantly lower nearly 10%. This should be a significant financial convergence condition. In addition, budget in China only represents the government's partial economy activities, that is, activity in the table; And the Chinese government more the main economic activities has been in the table is the actual outside, that investment. Look at mor investment thin body plan, you can judge the future China making the fiscal policy. China's "1025" period of railway construction planning, investment scale from 800 billion yuan a year down to 500 billion RMB, don't even ruled out any slow down or slow railway development potential. Next year guarantee room construction scale (of 7 million) will be better than this year significant contraction, at the same time, water conservancy investment planning have trillions could face reality adjustment. Judge the future direction of China's macroeconomic policy, need comprehensive Chinese government watch and off-balance-sheet activities within the change. According to my observation of the economy, China's long-term policy in early June inflexion point actually happened, even earlier. That is from expanding to finance convergence. Because in the past 10 months, China's actual building the total scale growth (the fixed assets investment price index adjusted) has dropped to 22.64% from the end of the year of 12.53% in October, a 10% decline. Establish China real estate not be moved next year the direction of repression, is also financial contraction of the signal. Over the past nine years of real estate boom to some extent can be understood as the government financing mechanism. Because financial expenditure is the expansion, the government has a lot of financing requirements of pressure. So a mechanism to be rewarded with: housing monetized, when the land capitalization after, the government was the only landlords. The economy is pulled into a real estate struts, the fundamental reason or finance. A because the so-called local government land transfer income this money from bank finally, developers get loans from the lenders to participate in the land of the bid. But more important for the prize money is girth displays its outside. The local government is very clever, know to use for to control house of carrying property market prices, but the overall completion is a sharp increase in the house for a year to all accounts for only of the amount for the amount of 30%). So the whole property prices move land price valuation levels, then investment promotion move money (here can't mechanical understanding of the local investment appears in the "zero land price", that is just a government for the value of the investor to cause the assignment investment, because for a bank will tell, land price or market price), support the expansion of investment. This is the logical lines. So the land supply is the China investment form of the important conditions, similar to the local government's capital. In this sense, the local government is actually investors, but it is not from the profit, but financial income, employment, GDP and future political promotion. China's next government is likely to return to a neutral and tight fiscal condition. In view of China's monetary expansion mechanism strong endogenous, caused by the government investment activities is the main body of creation currency, therefore, along with the fiscal convergence, China's big probability will gradually returned to normal rigorous monetary conditions, thus eliminating the logic of inflation based, and restore economic characteristics of the boy. China's current macro policy established basic direction for economic success constructs the solid transformation is the logical starting point, and, of course, the more the positive enterprising reform need to follow up.best sunglasses The central economic work conference we "WenZhongQiuJin" pitch. If "stable" can be understood as the convergence of fiscal expenditure, and "into" embodies for clearly put to raise the proportion of middle-income earners. To achieve this goal will require a substantial private sector to support the development of economy, foster entrepreneurship, improve the structure of employment. For this, the financial needs for credit capital flow to small and medium-sized enterprises provide more risk allowance; Need to carry out the special advantage to small and medium enterprises on favorable terms: for most small and medium-sized enterprise business tax will be exempted, improve business tax threshold; Improve the small and medium enterprise equipment such as allowance for depreciation. And the government economic activities and financial weakened falling demand, for China's future large-scale structural tax cuts to provide the possibility. To achieve this goal requires the Chinese government's expenditure structure need to education, infrastructure from a medical, social security and security house, make the government further to public finance transformation, the four projects in financial expenditure of the former hunting only 34%, compared with the developed countries and of the obvious ascending space.Such as medical expenses in a 10 trillion financial expenditure structure size just have more than $5000, China's drug prices and how to may drop too down? China needs to consider the state-owned assets privatisation policy to make up for pension and medical insurance account gap. These terms for macro structure is a final direction, let the income from the enterprise and to the state sector as soon as possible the hand back to family, reversing the family in the national economy continued to decline the proportion of the situation.
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