GDP active slow, broken 9 to break after 8

January 17,, published by the national bureau of statistics economic data showed that in 2011, GDP grew 9.2%, compared with before some year of double-digit growth in easily, today's GDP growth slowed sharply in does mean that economy. However, must be clear, the current GDP growth is slowing, it is macro regulation itself the expected results, the GDP of the common deformity bring economic growth accumulation of low quality of the cancer, with more energy will be used to control the structure of the strategy. It is based on the expected, yesterday the A share market also rose 4%, and to meet the upcoming economic transformation. In recent years Chinese stock market was stumble in endlessly,best sunglasses the root cause is still the inherent growth pattern in trouble, and real estate engine to put out, market and then difficult to see economic entity signs of prosperity again. So, past market can only continue the hope that the liquidity of the short-term excitement. Of course, since the last December 100.3 billion yuan net reduce the gap of foreign exchange, a drop of super market expectations coscodl, also don't expel recent central bank will cut for the deposit reserve rate. If the news was released in advance, and to better the economic slowdown in active structure of the expected, the stock market rose is not surprising. In fact, even if in the fourth quarter of last year's GDP growth slipped to 8.9%, "the nine" enough to cause excessive market personage of reading. But, compared to the "1025" economic growth down to 7% goal is concerned, China's economic growth and greater downside space. Admittedly, the scale of GDP in 2010 to the world beyond the Japanese jumped after the second, now the figure is at a record high of 47 trillion yuan makes again. But, from 2002 years later, the scale of China's GDP from 10 trillion yuan nearly five times the realize economic scale jumped, more actually just quantity achievements, resource consumption and extensive signs of expansion was too obvious. This is also the government to achieve growth slowdown, hope the direct reason for model transformation. The figures, released yesterday, real GDP is not worthy of note, but two new trend, if these trends continue, China's economic transformation as the great. The first tendency is fixed assets investment gradually cooling. Last year's total investment growth is 23.8%, the investment GDP ratio than in previous years fall modestly also appear, although the proportion is still too high. Obviously, fixed asset investment growth over the high of 30% from back to now position, the main reason is that the real estate market cooling and government debt accumulated, state-owned enterprises and local government never hard as usual madness investment. Although they are now days, even better than many folk capital, but for excessive dependence on government investment in China's economy, the investment growth can gradually return to rational, is already a very rare. In the existing political and economic context, it's hard to imagine investment to GDP pulling function greatly reduced, can with time in space, and gradually make investment slow down, economic structure can only hope to transition to consumption as the core development path to come up. The second trend is currency environment is beginning to return to normalization results. Last year M2 growth dropped to around 13%, lower than the early growth target of 16% to determine the M2, is monetary growth in recent years more unusual "low" year of growth. However, this trend is not stable, 2012 monetary policy if rhythm control is bad, or because the economic slowdown and resume day amount credit stimulation, currency may return to high growth data at any time. From the last two months last year, new loan as high as 1.2 trillion yuan, M2 incremental amazing to see, for more than a year of tightening monetary control may die at any time. We have any real not slack. This time, we can't miss let currency environment, melt the normalization of asset bubble and inflation the good opportunity. Before some year jumped credit, not only for financial reform increased the difficulty,cheap new era hats also for financial stability coated with a layer of shadow, more important is inefficient capital allocation, let the economic transformation has always been a slogan stage. The most pressing should be accelerating financial reform, realize the existing liquidity in the market rationally. China is a specializing in manufacture of emerging economies, only economic equilibrium between departments each other, reasonable distribution, such growth is sustainable. But in the past ten years, too many resources to a state-owned capital hands, private capital in the middle for survival. Especially, now as the main body to usury banking system is shadow collapse, folk capital financing difficulties is more serious. Only the Chinese economy to dependence on got rid of investment, international trade account also to equilibrium level, years of liquidity flood pattern regression normalization, economic transformation can be attained. It is hard to imagine, in a credit boom, real estate XuHuo, infrastructure projects the deluge of cases, people will have idea to active the adjustment of economic structure. For the long-term health of the Chinese economy development, hope this round of economic slowdown active able to sit through it.

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