House prices from nanjing adjustment period rule view, historical data shows, the scale and the housing price index of the M2 index highly correlated, year-on-year growth after the M2 see bottom five months, house prices hit bottom year-on-year growth. "Called history" the most severe "property market adjustment and control policies will be continued for two years, of the controversial limit to buy policies also full year, facing the commodity house investment down, turnover shrinking, land flow, the status of GuAo take developers how to break the stalemate? How to break the market? A bureau, nets is still research institutions issued 2012 market trends report reveals property market operation this year trend. Keywords: conditional keywords: second half full or will have a relax regulation as conditions the deposit reserve rate cut, parts of the city accumulation fund quotas ascension, the first interest rate cuts the suite arise, about whether control policies will relax and when the increasingly warm. Relax discussion is research institutions, and general manager net 365 real estate research institute President li zhi when accepting a reporter to interview, throughout the year, to see that from the first half of the year, from the central level analysis, market still maintains tight control of the fundamental key, but local and related ministries will in time and fine tune.In the second half to meet the following two conditions, will DaoBi central policy change in this premise, the central may also be conditions of relaxation regulation: a, according to the current situation, house prices to fall about half a year, should be able to preliminary the desired effect, and can also be interpreted as house prices to a reasonable level stage; Two, the debt crisis worsened, the domestic economy continues to dip, "the eight" meet with difficulties, or third quarter will be expected years the change of policy, an important time window, but even so, also just control policy moderate relax,baseball sunglasses and not let go. On this basis, the second half of the real estate market will appear at the bottom and consolidation, build recovery. For development enterprise, it is still in the first half of the hardest time; For the person that buy a house is concerned, good buys a room to the time has not far away. Of course, also may place in the first half of game success, in the first half of the market to take the lead in building, consolidation, the second half consolidation, recovery keep trend, the 2013 has upward trend. From the industry policy perspective, the control policy will remain sensitive and stable overall fundamental key, but considering the economic growth in the first half down or than expected and recent RMB appear depreciation factors such as expected, the first place people or will have the opportunity to relax the structural policies, in addition, house property tax scope of implementation or will further expand, is expected to become cancel buy, be restricted to credit policy limit of fist policy. Keywords: comprehensive second half full of house prices is expected to build from nanjing house prices adjust cycle view, historical data shows, the scale and the housing price index of the M2 index highly correlated, year-on-year growth after the M2 see bottom five months, house prices hit bottom year-on-year growth. Last November for 12.7% year-on-year growth of the M2, creating the year low, from December central bank cut the deposit reserve rate perspective, the current M2 growth has basically at the bottom to the year-on-year area, if year-on-year growth in the future of the M2 1-2 months see bottom, the house prices low or will appear in the stage in the second quarter of 2012, but if the year-on-year growth in 3-the M2 may see bottom, the prices will be delayed or low stage in 2012 to 8-10 month appear. According to li zhi introduces, at present, our city house prices already close to the bottom area of the history valuation, house prices decline is expected late overall limited space. From the basic need purchasing power valuations (the housing price to income than) perspective, November the number is 11.56, a historic lows still has about 11% of the theory cut space, but if you consider that house prices rising over the long term trend if appear adjustment, the rigid demand purchasing power will face systemic risk valuations down. House prices from actual operation look, 2011, mainly just need to dish, suburbs plate part of the building mainly, appear about 20%-30% drop the depth, and promote the volume to increase, and the emergence of a, secondhand the room price hangs upside down phenomenon, but high dish, high-grade dish although volume fell significantly, but the house price declines in just need to offer weak, the first half of 2012, did not rule out the individual building dish to promote the deal, there will be an option for fall in May, range at 15% to 20%. Just need to offer limited drop instead, headed to the consolidation, and cast a bottom period, preferential measures will only stage appear. According to normal speculate that the second half will enter the market price of comprehensive building. Keywords: just to buy a house in the first half is still just need to control all previous best time, according to the market demand is rigid real support strength, according to the statistics agency netmovie, 2008 7-November and in May 2011-November as the most difficult stage market, its house monthly volume still keep in the 250000-350000 m2, the average daily trading volume or in the 80-120 between sets. In January the first two weeks, nanjing average daily cycle of 87 set in residential clinch a deal around, close to the lowest level of basic historical clinch a deal. Despite the credit limit relatively ample and early profits element, but in the macro policy does not appear reversal, under the premise of sexual needs and is expected to improve investment, and shooting, model short-term demand difficulty in concentrating release, clinch a deal is still the main rigid demand, the first half of residential volume stability is big probability events; As price reason, gradually stabilising and relax the expected to strengthen policy, is expected to two, three quarters of the improvement of the outside part watching sexual needs to enter the market, the volume or will increase. Buy room person to it, the real buy time can arise when exactly? Li zhi borrow stock market in "the left trading" and "the right deal" to explain buy time problem. The left and the right trade deal, is in securities trading market in the more commonly used a kind of business operation rules. In the share price falls, share price is bounded on the bottom, and in the bottom left is the low suck, on the left side of trade, and the recovery in see bottom chase after go up, on the right deal, both have their pros and cons.He thinks, the housing and stock market both similar also have different places, in order to express image, with the stock market term explanation housing: the bottom doesn't mean stocks the bottom, so he suggested, from purchase experience look, rigid self-waterproofing had better choose the person that live on the left side transaction, the price is to make a deficit is not important, buy a house with the most important. "Therefore, 2012 throughout the year, especially in the first half is still the best buy rigid home-buyers opportunity." S express FeiJie market recent broadcasts reporter changing hands high rate of commercial housing developers: would rather move rooms, don't want to check out by February 8, according to the nanjing replacement room change gloves times the charts, in close to 90 days, the city's 11 home building dish replacement homes totaled 572 sets. LeJia's garden, vanke golden field, the rising sun in love with the city, Venice water city, the phoenix city are on the list to shore, and many of the buildings are recent building sell like hot cakes. In the 11 home building list 8 home building dish changing hands rate at about 10%, check out a cycle of as many as 71 set up a. And the previous replacement room set next to the individual building dish when enterprises easily 20% ~ 30% of changing hands than rate, the above data relative stable. But industry insiders also says, generally speaking,wholesale sunglasses change hands below 5% rate control is normal. Reporters in the survey found, and last year to buy, be restricted to loan limit policy "stuck" pent-up demand, become the main reason of the return to room is different, many developers have said they purchase of the person that buy a house to the more stringent qualification review, "from the proof to open purchase loan review, we will understand it very clearly" and, according to the south of the city a certain developers chief discloses, the more the name and lead to the extension contract is changing hands the cause of the rate increase. The reporter understands, at present purchase, first needs to be proof of purchase, in determining the qualification that buy a house can have after subscription homes, to sign a contract, and finally the detection. In the process, if appear the following 3 kinds of cases, will increase the exchange room number: first, after the suite subscription, the person that buy a house in formal contract requirements when a name change; Second, after signing of contract signed in to this period before, the person that buy a house request for a name or change a name; Third, in the provisions of the contract period developers not duly signed. East of the relevant person in charge of a hot plate said a name change and increase or decrease in its name is change gloves the reasons for the growth of The Times. And the south of the city the developers head is further revealed, general developers can appoint a 5 ~ 7 days of signing period. But in actual operation, the person that buy a house can have on hand because of funds or other reasons, often not signing on time, directly lead to "sell more, changing hands the higher rate." And a developer confessing jiangbei is changing hands high rate mainly because move rooms, "this year to a new lower than last year, a storied building nearly 1000 yuan/m2, at the beginning of last year to see some of the person that buy a house price is low, puts forward new requirements changes a room," he says, developers are not reluctant to check out, "after all the market now is bad also to check out of the room for developers, it's loss," but can accept the person that buy a house move rooms, the premise is "not change for a big small". The direct result of move rooms and is leading to return the increase of changing the gloves times. In another development, in January, nanjing property market clinch a deal 2202 sets, than last year the corresponding period fell about 7 into, is still in the whole state of the downturn.
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